Two Crescendo interviews on Brazilian macro-environment published in Dec 2016

Two Crescendo interviews on Brazilian macro-environment published in Dec 2016

Crescendo founder & Ceo, Fred Donier, was interviewed on two occasions, in december 2016, regarding the Brazil strategic & economic reforms agenda. They were published in Les Echos, the leading french econonomic newspaper.

After a year of extreme political volatility and tension, including massive street demonstrations, Dilma Rousseff´s impeachment process, and the emprisonment of key political leaders (Eduardo Cunha ex president of the Chamber of Deputies, Sergio Cabral, ex Governor of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Antonio Palocci , ex Minister of Finance under Lula´s government, just to name a few ones), the new federal government led by Michel Temer, is trying to set a new agenda driven by structural reforms and fiscal ajustment.

The political context in 2017 will remain highly tense and volatile, as the revelations of 77 Odebrecht top executives, in the Lava Jato process, will be probably validated by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) by February/March. The executives have accepted to disclose the corruption scheme details that the company implemented in Brazil and a dozen of countries in Latin America and portuguese speaking Africa. Those revelations may impact aproximately 200 members of the federal Congress. Another source of tension will come from the judgement by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) of the process regarding the alleged illegal financing of the Rousseff-Temer presidential ticket in 2014 elections. It is not yet clear, if the court will consider Roussef and Temer´s campaigns as financially binded or not.

In the short term, a potential macro-economic upside may come from the decrease of the Central Bank interest rate (Selic), as the annual inflation has fallen from 10,7% in 2015 to 6,4% in 2016, and as families and corporations are heavily indebted.

Please find hereafter the two articles:

1. Dec. 8: “Brazil launches pension reform in the midst of crisis ”  – original title in french: Le Brésil engage la réforme des retraites sur fond de crise  – in portuguese: “Brasil lança reforma da previdência em un contexto de crise”

2. Dec, 26: “Temer bets on reforms” – original title in French: Temer parie sur les réformes  – in portuguese: “Temer aposta nas reformas”

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